A surf forecast is an awesome tool that all surfers should be familiar with. This article is intended to help beginner surfers read and leverage a surf forecast to help them become more informed about the wave conditions at their local surf spots.
Knowing how to read a surf forecast is helpful when planning a surf day that has conditions suitable for your skill level. Over time, a surf forecast will help you become more familiar with the conditions at your local surf spot.
If you’re looking to learn how to read a surf forecast as a beginner surfer, you are in the right place!
What is a surf forecast and why is it important?
A surf forecast, also called a surf report, is a powerful tool that allows surfers to get an idea of the conditions at a surf spot before they pack up the car and head to the beach.
Even surfers that live on the beach will check the surf forecast to see what the conditions are. A surf forecast provides information that is helpful even if you can see the waves in person.
Beginner surfers can utilize a surf forecast to determine if the conditions are suitable for their skill level, or suitable for surfing at all.
A surf forecast will also help you become more familiar with the local surf spots near you. As you are able to connect data from a surf forecast to your own experiences over time, you will learn what conditions are best for you.
What are the most important parts of a surf forecast?
There are several factors that together make up what I have been referring to as “surfing conditions”. Surfing conditions include parameters about waves, wind, and tides. Of course, daylight hours are important as well.
Understanding how to read a surf forecast entails knowing how each of these factors influence the overall surfing conditions. The six major components of surfing conditions are detailed below.
Wave height
When learning how to read a surf forecast, the wave height is probably the most important parameter. This is because it is the most important factor in determining if the conditions are worthy of surfing.
Most surfers know what range of wave sizes they are comfortable with, so it is easy to tell if a given day is suitable for their skill level.
I myself, as an intermediate surfer, look for waves between 2 and 7 feet high. Anything below 2 feet is probably too small. Anything above 7 feet is getting out of my personal comfort zone.
That being said, not all waves are created equal. Some are mushy and slow, while others are heavy, thick, and fast. The shape of the wave depends on the wave’s power and the topography of the ocean floor.
Long story short, use the wave height estimation from the forecast as just that: a prediction. Expect waves that are larger and smaller than what the forecast predicts.
Wave direction
The wave direction is the trajectory of the swell. That is, which direction the waves are coming from and which way they are going.
The wave direction is important when considering how the shape of the coastline might impact how the waves break. For example, outcroppings, heads, and jetties protect surf spots from one direction or another, or sometimes both.
On the Oregon Coast, where I surf, there are many surf spots that are protected from the North by a piece of land. Swells often roll in from a Northwest direction. Therefore, these surf spots are somewhat protected from Northwest swells and more exposed to Southwest swells.
Whether a particular swell direction is a good thing or not depends on more factors. If there are multiple surf spots near you with a variety of coastline structure, the swell direction might influence your decision.
For example, if the waves are on the large size of your comfort zone, maybe choose a surf spot that is more protected from the swell direction. Alternatively, if the waves are small, you probably want a surf spot that is more exposed to the waves directly.
Period
The time in between waves is called the period. The period is an important parameter in a surf forecast because it influences the power of the waves.
In general, a longer period is preferable. This is because a longer period typically produces cleaner, more powerful waves and usually makes it easier to paddle out to the break.
A longer period is the result of smaller waves merging to form larger and more powerful waves, which reduces “noise” from mushier waves and creates a cleaner breaking wave.
Swells with a larger wave size but a smaller period can have the same power as smaller waves with a longer period. That is why the period can be so influential on the conditions.
In Oregon, periods usually range from 7 to 16 seconds, but somewhere around 9 to 10 seconds is most common. A short period is generally below 8 seconds, where a longer one is somewhere above 12 seconds.
The influence of the period will also vary based on the type of surf break (beach, reef, or point). In that way, the conditions at individual surf spots will be affected differently.
Wind speed and wind direction
The direction and speed of the wind can be important to consider. If it is too windy, the shape of the waves can be affected. Not to mention it isn’t the most pleasant thing hanging out at the beach in high winds.
Generally, surfers like what is called “offshore” wind as opposed to “onshore wind”. Offshore wind blows from the land to the sea, and can actually hold up the face of the wave and make it break slower.
Onshore wind, on the other hand, can push the waves from the back and cause the wave to break faster.
Regarding wind speed, I think anything over 15 miles per hour is a bit windy, and anything over 20 miles per hour may be too windy to surf. Under 10 miles per hour is preferable. No wind can lead to glassy conditions, which can feel surreal out on the water.
The wind speed and direction will be more or less important based on the surf spots local to you. Some surf spots may provide better protection from the wind when it comes from certain directions. Beaches that are exposed are best avoided when the wind is high.
Tide
The timing and intensity of the tide can impact the quality of the waves at a given surf spot substantially. Pretty much every surf spot is impacted by the tide.
A surf forecast will tell you what time the high tides and the low tides occur, as well as how high and how low the tide level will be.
Some surf spots are only good at certain tides, while some are pretty much quality regardless of the tide. Sometimes, you can time your session to match rising or receding tides. I often surf at Agate Beach in Oregon. In general, a middle and high tide is preferable.
You will have to learn about the surf spots near you to see if you need to pay attention to the tides in the surf forecast. Ask your surfer friends, future surfer friends, or surf shop employees about your local surf spots.
In general, beach breaks can be surfed at any tide. Reef breaks on the other hand, make only break at certain tides. Point breaks may only break at certain tides.
Water Temperature
The water temperature is only really important if you have multiple options of what to wear when you’re surfing. For example, if you live in an area with warmer waters, the water temperature on a given day might warrant a specific type of wetsuit or no wetsuit at all.
In colder waters, you might choose a specific wetsuit thickness based on the water temperature, if you have multiple wetsuits.
For me, I only own one wetsuit. I never look at the water temperature because I always have to wear a wetsuit and I only have one wetsuit to wear!
How to read a surf forecast – an example
When you read a surf forecast for the first time, it can be overwhelming. There’s a lot of numbers and other data to take in, and it can be tough to know exactly how to interpret that data.
Below is an example of a simple surf forecast. I’ve added labels for each of the main pieces of information.
Notice that wave conditions are given for three times of day. You can see how the conditions change throughout the day, and even across multiple days if that information is provided.
Some websites will give a quality rating that is automatically generated based on a set of criteria. This rating prediction is helpful, but should be used as a guideline, like the rest of the forecast itself, rather than an end all be all.
Sometimes, there is information given for primary and secondary swells. You only really need to worry about the primary swell. The wave height listed for the primary swell is the average. Remember, it is likely that there will be waves larger than what is listed.
In addition to the wave and wind conditions, the tides and daylight hours are also provided. The tide height is measured from the reference point of the average low tide. In this example, the second high tide of the day is over 8 feet above the average low tide height.
What are the best conditions for beginner surfers?
Beginner surfers should aim for mellow conditions that are suitable for learning. You will learn a lot more in conditions that are good quality and suitable for your skill level, rather than in poor conditions or conditions that are beyond your skill level.
The table below shows the different components of a surf forecast and the corresponding suitability for beginner surfers. You can compare this table against a forecast to gauge how good the conditions are for beginners.
| Not Ideal | Getting Better | Best | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wave Size (Feet, Meters) | < 1 ft, > 5 ft < 0.3 m, > 1.5 m | 1 – 4 ft 0.3 – 1. 2 m | 2 – 3 ft 0.6m – 0.9m |
| Period (Seconds) | < 7 s | 7 – 10 s | > 10s |
| Wind (mph, m/s) | > 15 mph > 6.7 m/s | 8 – 14 mph 3.6 – 6.3 m/s | < 8 mph < 3.6 m/s |
| Swell Direction | Depends on location | ||
| Tide | Depends on location |
An ideal wave size for beginners is 2 to 3 feet. This size of wave will have enough power to help you stand up, but won’t be too big that it is too scary or dangerous. In 2-to-3-foot waves, a beginner surfer will likely be able to get out to where the waves are breaking, so that they can ride the face of the waves.
That being said, beginners can totally ride the whitewater on a day with a larger wave size. You just might not be able to get out to where the waves are breaking. Riding the whitewater is the first step for true beginners, but you eventually want to start riding the wave face, before it breaks. That’s where the real fun is!
A period over 10 seconds is preferred, because the waves will usually be cleaner with a larger period. However, a period over 7 seconds is also okay.
Look for a wind speed of less than 8 miles per hour if possible. Anything less than 15 miles per hour is probably alright, but over 15 miles per hour and it can be less than ideal.
Swell direction isn’t the most important parameter, but it can influence your decision on which surf spot to go to, as I discussed above. The tide depends on the location too. As I mentioned earlier, some surf spots are better or worse depending on the tides.
How to leverage a surf forecast?
Surf forecasts are a helpful tool that can be leveraged to make you more familiar with the surfing conditions in your area, how your local surf spots change based on the conditions, and how you can determine what conditions are best for you.
Each time you go surfing, review the surf forecast first. Take a screenshot and compare the predicted conditions with what you see in person. Try to remember the main components of the surf forecast when you’re out in the water.
Pay attention to the wave size, the period, the wave direction, and how the waves behave at a given time of day. Try to notice how the tide influences where the waves break and if the shape of the wave changes.
Over time, you will get more familiar with the variability in conditions at your local spots. This will allow you to be more informed when reading a surf forecast in the future. Subsequently, you will begin to understand what conditions are best for your particular skill level or objectives.
What websites have the best surf forecasts?
The three main websites that I am familiar with are Magic Seaweed, Surfline, and Surf-Forecast. All these options are reputable and provide clear and easy to read surf forecasts for surf spots for all over the world.
All surf forecasts provide more or less the same information, but in slightly different formats. The difference is mostly in how the data is presented.
There are features unique to each website, however. Surf-Forecast has an “energy” parameter that is supposed to be more accurate than the wave size. This is because small waves with a large period can have the same power as a large wave with a short period.
Surf-Forecast and Magic Seaweed both have a rating quality parameter. However, this is not necessarily reflective of a beginner surfer’s preferred wave size. Magic Seaweed does have a nice map feature.
Magic Seaweed and Surfline both have live webcams for some spots with the premium version. Live webcams are a huge plus, but it will cost you some money and they are not essential.
I think each surfer uses the surf forecasts they are most familiar with. I use mostly Magic Seaweed and Surf-Forecast.
How similar are surf forecasts from different websites?
In my experience, surf forecasts from different websites are usually pretty similar. That said, they can vary a bit.
For example, the wave height may be one or two feet different from one surf forecast to another. The wind speed is a bit more variable, but I imagine that wind speed is probably tougher to estimate.
Don’t worry too much about the differences between the surf forecasts from each website. As a beginner, just choose one and go with it!
How accurate are surf forecasts?
Surf forecasts are based on models. The estimated conditions are the best predictions that the models can make based on measured data. That said, the models are only so accurate.
Surf forecasts should be used as a guideline, rather than the end all be all. Expect larger and smaller waves than the forecast says. Also expect reasonable variation in the other parameters.
The limitation of accuracy from the surf forecast is one reason why a webcam is so nice. A live webcam and the surf forecast together give you the most information possible without being there yourself.
Conclusion
Hopefully you learned how to read a surf forecast. If you are a beginner surfer, try to become familiar with a surf forecast and check the conditions before you head to the beach.
Knowing how read a surf forecast is especially important for beginner surfers. It is important for beginner surfers to choose conditions appropriate for learning.
There are several parameters provided in a surf forecast that give information about these parameters. Using these data, you can decide on if it is a good day to surf for your skill level.
Choose one of the three surf forecasts I mentioned above. They are all quite similar. Use the one with the format that you like best.
At the end of the day, don’t worry too much about finding the day with ideal surfing conditions. Most of us work full time and only have a limited number of days to surf. Just go surf and have fun!
Heads up! Surfing is awesome but it can be dangerous! Learn more about how to stay safe and avoid dangers while surfing. If you are a beginner surfer, check out my other articles about surfing and my ultimate guide to learning how to surf.
